Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................137 SCENARIOS OF GLOBAL CHANGE.....................................................................................................................137 Atmospheric Composition......................................................................................................................................138 Climate Change.......................................................................................................................................................138 Climate variability and extremes......................................................................................................................139 Analogues of climate change .............................................................................................................................139 Urbanization ............................................................................................................................................................140 Land Use, Land Cover, and Biodiversity ............................................................................................................140 Industrial and Agricultural Pollution with Hormone-Disrupting Chemicals ................................................140 Trade and Travel ....................................................................................................................................................140 FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS TO VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES UNDER GLOBAL CHANGE............................................................................................................................................141 Exposure...................................................................................................................................................................142 Sensitivity.................................................................................................................................................................143 Impacts .....................................................................................................................................................................144 Benchmarks for Measuring Impacts....................................................................................................................145 IMPACTS.....................................................................................................................................................................146 Atmospheric Composition......................................................................................................................................146 Climate Change.......................................................................................................................................................147 Malaria.................................................................................................................................................................148 (i) Exposure and sensitivity...........................................................................................................................148 (ii) Extreme climatic events and malaria transmission............................................................................149 Vector-borne diseases other than malaria ......................................................................................................150 (i) Exposure and sensitivity...........................................................................................................................150 (ii) Extreme climatic events and vector-borne diseases other than malaria..........................................151 Urbanization ............................................................................................................................................................152 Land Use, Land Cover, and Biodiversity ............................................................................................................152 Endocrine Hormone Disruptors ...........................................................................................................................154 Trade and Travel ....................................................................................................................................................154 Interactive Effects of Global Change Drivers .....................................................................................................155 Summary of Potential Impacts on Key Vector-Borne Diseases .......................................................................155 FRAMEWORK FOR DESIGNING ADAPTATION OPTIONS UNDER GLOBAL CHANGE........................156 ADAPTATION OPTIONS..........................................................................................................................................159 Legislative ................................................................................................................................................................159 Engineering and Behavioral ..................................................................................................................................160 Management of vector-borne diseases by vector control...............................................................................160 Management of vector-borne diseases by targeting the pathogens .............................................................161 (i) Chemotherapy............................................................................................................................................161 (ii) Vaccines .....................................................................................................................................................161 Adaptation of Control Measures for Vector-Borne Diseases in Response to Global Change .....................162 Adaptation to invasions by exotic vectors and pathogens ............................................................................162 Threats to Sustainability of Adaptation Options ...............................................................................................163 Resistance ............................................................................................................................................................163 Human safety and nontarget effects of vector control...................................................................................164 Community health and public health infrastructure.....................................................................................164 Adaptive capacity of different social groups ...................................................................................................165 FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................165 CONCLUSIONS .........................................................................................................................................................167 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...........................................................................................................................................167 REFERENCES 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